There are many things that you can bitch and moan about American TV. It could be the fact that we are inundated with about 4 Liberty Mutual commercials a game, alongside a mixture of dick pill, fast food, political, and random medication commercials, which I’m almost certain WILL cause side effects requiring the need for a doctor. There’s one thing I hate more than anything else however, and it’s the fact that TV networks seem to think that we need even more reminders about the fact it’s Halloween, or Thanksgiving, or the ‘Holiday Season’, by messing up perfectly good broadcast graphics in the belief that we all live in some time warp outside and away from the rest of civilisation. Please. Stop it.
And with that, let’s have a look at the drama of this week. Thankfully, the chaos level was slightly lower, which was useful as I’ve been trying to get my rear end in gear and sort out some CFB data forms which have become fragmented and all over the place. It’s a bit hard to type on a MacBook, without a Numpad keyboard whilst wondering what upset is due to happen in the next 40 seconds. It’s hard enough reacting when I see ‘Maps’ appear on one of my ‘Quadbox’ feeds (Which is actually now 11 games across 4 devices. I’ll explain another day). I guess, we start at the top?
The ACC Continues To Flirt With The Idea Of Falling Apart.
The ACC continues its recent tradition of being the ‘Always Chaos Conference’, but whenever you play Syracuse on the road, you know there’s a chance for an upset alert. Only three FBS teams play in a domed stadium, and of these, only the ‘JMA Wireless Dome’ is actually designed with the home team in mind. The SMU Mustangs become the latest team to fall victim to the resident ACC ‘Bogey team’, which, a bit like last year blows the ACC playoff race wide open… Unless Wake Forest can carry on their winning way.
SMU and Wake Forest go head-to-head on November 14th in what could essentially be the ‘Play in’ for the ACC Championship game. Duke and Virginia Tech are both on two losses right now, but both are more than likely to lose at least one more game this season, with Miami, Wake Forest, and SMU on dockets between the two. Duke destroyed Boston College, allowing only a Safety (Yeah, a safety), and Wake Forest have moved to 7 – 1 after a demolition of Virginia; whom at one point I honestly thought could have made an ACC run, but now have a losing record. I suppose the ‘Demon’ of the Demon Deacons proved to be useful on Halloween, even though their mascot looks like someone dozed off through ‘Mascot design #101’, then sketched the first thing that came to their head 1 hour before the assessment deadline (Still a tougher assessment than in some SEC Football course modules though).
UNC taking Miami all the way to the end isn’t necessarily a bad thing on Miami. When you compare their performance to others today (I’m thinking Indiana in particular), Miami looked more ‘strong and stable’ of a team, and in a series of weeks when I’ll be mentioning the ‘eye test’ over and over and over again as the reason why the committee is ranking x team above y, I would still rank Miami as a sure-fire playoff team for 2026. Year 2 of Bill Belichick at UNC is far better than his first, even though his off the field life is as chaotic as a latter year episode of Brookside, and frankly, they could well have been a 6 – 2 team by this point if a few things went their way. I’m not saying that a 4-loss UNC should be ranked, but Miami clawing to victory should be seen as a ‘quality win’ to take with them to South Bend against Notre Dame next weekend. Who’d have thought a 2026 edition of Catholics vs Convicts could be so important!
Before I move on, I will note that it was a bit of a scary 15 minutes in the Clemson @ Florida State game when Elyjah Thurmon suffered a head injury, and is being kept overnight in hospital. As someone who grew up with Motorsports, and had to see 1,001 replays of my favourite racing driver dying as ESPN showed every angle possible of a crash at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in 2011, combined with a section of society who seem to take joy in crashes and people getting injured, I’m glad that networks, ESPN in particular have become more acutely aware of the fact that there is an actual human being, injured, who doesn’t deserve to have every moment of medical treatment displayed on our TV screens. Cutting back to the ACCN studio was a good, classy call, and thoughts to Thurmon for a quick recovery. It’s also good that the two teams’ medical teams both worked together for the greater good. I’ll leave it there.
I Suppose Notre Dame Fits In Here.
Navy were strong in the first half, and in fact, it was a one-point game at the half. Whatever Marcus Freeman said in the locker room at Gillette Stadium, seemed to work as they were able to score 14 points in the 3rdQuarter and put the game to bed by not allowing the Midshipmen to score a single point in the second half. There wasn’t an interception or fumble by either team and Navy did win the time of possession game, but that’s because of the heavy rush offence that Navy runs. They went a combined 5/9 between two quarterbacks in the air for a total of… 33 yards. You always have to argue that run-heavy offences run the risk of getting worn out in such high-pressure games, but this is Navy after all; they are there to defend the US at sea (and in the air; all the good planes go to the Navy), but Notre Dame were the better team over 4 quarters.
With everything I’m saying about teams around Notre Dame; from Indiana being pitiful at times to Ohio State losing, I can see Notre Dame move up to 3rd Place when the committee get together in the Gaylord Texan Hotel in the next 72 hours, behind Miami and Georgia. You could make the argument that a 4-point loss over a well ranked BYU is a ‘stronger’ loss than Georgia getting TPed out of Jordan-Hare stadium and rank them #2, meaning that would be the ‘de-facto’ ACC Championship game which would likely have taken place if Notre Dame (Sing along children!!!)
JOIN A DAMN CONFERENCE! (And that conference be the ACCi).
With Gameday coming to South Bend this weekend, this could well be the biggest game of Marcus Freeman’s coaching career. A legitimate, battle tested #1 vs #3 matchup, potential for it being #1 vs #2. What a time to be alive.
The B1G Needs A Leader. Those Who Deserve To Lead Are Still Being Buried In The Rankings.
The B1G is officially in identity crisis mode, as now Ohio State, and Indiana, the two teams who were basically seen as the shoe in for a rematch of the B1G Championship at Lucas Oil in December now have QBs out of action. In both cases, it’s shown some of the reliance on the quarterbacks to deliver a workable offense, and Indiana have had what… A 4th stupidly close game in a row? We should start there.
I’m a diehard Indiana Hoosier fan, and last year joked about the close games necessitating the use of State Issued defibrillators, as all of the angst of supporting the Colts, Pacers, Fever etc was directed right at the team residing in Bloomington. Last year, the Hoosiers had Fernando Mendoza, who I honestly believe had the entire playbook recited within a week of arriving on campus, meaning he could make the crazy game saving plays that we saw say at Penn State. Josh Hoover when healthy was a safe pair of hands, though not as dynamic and three-dimensional, forcing the team to rely slightly more on the running game, and what is clearly one of the best defensive lines in the FBS. The cracks have been there the past few weeks, through the loss to Ohio State, the OT win at Michigan, and the OT win this time around against Minnesota.
I want to be clear. Indiana do not look like a team who will progress past the Quarter Finals of the playoffs at this point. Assuming that it’ll be UCLA they play in the B1G championship game now Ohio State have secured a second loss, I don’t think that they will win that match up. Heck. I’m not even certain they can beat USC the way the ‘other’ B1G LA team played today, and that should be setting off some serious alarm bells at Memorial Stadium and throughout campus. How the Hoosiers were able to be so sloppy on special teams, not only in terms of kicking a ball between the uprights, but also punting is beyond me; especially considering the way Cignetti normally coaches his teams, and even though they’ve played nine straight games without a bye-week, Kirk Herbstreit said it well on commentary that their non-conference schedule was… A whole lot of nothing much. When considering the fabled ‘eye test’, I think the committee will look at an injured Josh Hoover, look at the sloppy play of the past few weeks, and maybe, just maybe drop them behind UCLA. In terms of the head-to-head matchup differentiator, UCLA play Minnesota next week after beating Nevada this week.
I will add at this point that Minnesota played a more than decent game from their perspective. Of course they were the underdogs going in. Of course Indiana's defence was going to be a difficult one to crack, though they were able to do so on more than one occasion. They could have done with a few less penalties, though that could be said from Indiana's perspective too. Despite having half the number of 1st Downs, they were able to almost match the Hoosiers in time of possession, only had one takeaway, and if it wasn't for the fact that Indiana kicked their own 60 yard field goal just a few moments later, they would have had the award for 'Clutch Field Goal Kick Of The Week (Presented by Jersey Mike Subs)'. Minnesota are not a team to be taken lightly, and after their hard fought win against Iowa last week, there were plenty of occasions when this had the making of 'Doing a Kentucky' and getting the job done against ranked teams two weeks in a row. Massive respect for their team.
The early window in the Midwest saw Iowa take Wisconsin to the cleaners, showing that they have the potential to be a Playoff team, though that will all rely on the health of Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA as teams. There seems to be a situation with teams that wear yellow (gold) and black across the FBS at points, as Missou seem to show similar flashes of brilliance making you think that they could be a worthwhile Playoff team, but the results end up stifling them down the stretch. Iowa are 6 – 2, but only 3 – 2 in conference play with losses to Ohio State and Minnesota, so even if the B1G descends into all out chaos, the losses on their resume will be held against them, in part because their path to Lucas Oil stadium is all but impossible to reach, meaning they can’t claim the ‘conference champion path’ into the CFP. It would take so many dominos to fall elsewhere in order for them to even stand a real chance, but will still be interesting to see how the committee will rank them, if at all.
Michigan beat Rutgers, and Oregon scraped pass Northwestern in a Relentless style jersey to replace the Monster Energy jersey of a few weeks ago, forgetting that Monster are the XII title sponsor these days. That loss for Northwestern puts them into Iowa territory, meaning that they can’t capitalise on issues around them in the conference anymore, though I’m sure they’re enjoying the ‘new’ Ryan Fieldii. At this point of the season, these games are just working out if, and where teams will go bowling this year. Illinois beat Maryland who are in a new coach rebuild stage, and oh… Penn State have scored more than 30 points in a conference game in almost a year, even though it was against Purdue. So.. Take that as you will.
That leads us to Ohio State, who went into a surprisingly wet Coliseum to take on USC. The world was looking to see how Ohio State would do without Julian Sayin, especially how it would take Jeremiah Smith out of the game. The answer isn’t fully determined, however it’s safe to say that Smith isn’t as much of a weapon, in part because Luke Fahey just couldn’t find a way to connect with him. 10 receptions for 83 yards is not the kind of stats we expect for a guy who’s almost certain to get a free trip to New York in a couple of months, and even though Fahey had more passing yards than Jayden Maiava for USC, and even though OSU dominated time of possession and every other metric I promise myself not to go into in these articles, USC took home the victory, and go 7 – 2.
It would take a man crazier than myself to suggest that Oregon will be able to beat Ohio State at the Horseshoe next weekend, and even though we know anything can happen in ‘The Game’, the key question for Ohio State now is have they got enough firepower on offense to prove to the committee that they deserve to be ranked ahead of USC in a head-to-head. Yes, OSU have a ‘quality loss’ (If you can fully call it that) against Texas, but we have seen in years past that the committee will look at the team playing down the stretch and evaluate them on their performances as much as W0 – 4 results, and if we assume an Indiana – UCLA Championship game, we’re talking about the 3rd and almost certainly final spot for the B1G in the playoffs.
It’s Almost Business As Usual In XII Land; It’s Almost Too Normal.
Remember the time when it was the XII which was throwing up chaos at every turn, with 100+ point combined point games, and 6OT thrillers? I know Texas and Oklahoma left, but apart from that, what’s happening to the XII? There’re weeks when it almost seems… Constrained in itself!
UCF forgot that they had a Friday Night game, and were destroyed by Baylor, who are now a single win away from going Bowling next month. Remember that time when UCF were petitioning for the American to become part of the Power 6, and their claimed National Championship? Teams like James Maddison should pay attention in this regard, as when you move from being a big fish in a small pond to a medium sized fish in a lake, there’ a chance you will be outmatched.
Houston had a bye-week, leaving BYU, Texas Tech and Utah in charge of keeping the house in order at the sharp end of the conference, and all took care of business. Both Texas Tech and BYU only were able to win by a single score (At home to Arizona & Arizona State respectively), but as both were on the higher end of the scoring side of things, there will be enough for the committee to see about each phase of the teams’ performance without reverting to the old ‘Defence Optional’ moniker about the league.
A bit like the SEC, this is one of those ‘calm before the storm’ weeks, as next week has some fantastic matchups to look forward to. There’s the battle for the state of Utah between BYU and… Utah, Cincinnati on the road at Houston, and West Virginia come off of a bye-week to go and face Texas Tech. At least 4 of these teams have a shot to go to the XII Championship Game, and there’s a strong chance that it could well be a BYU / Utah rematch depending on how the rest of the season goes elsewhere. I mentioned last week that there was a risk of the XII becoming the conference that only sends two teams to the playoffs. With what’s happened in the ACC this week, there’s a chance that the ACC and the XII could be battling over who gets three teams in; it’ll again depend on the committee, results, and how close the games next week actually end up being.
The SEC Brings Neither Tricks, Nor Treats. Unless You’re Texas Perhaps?
‘It Just Means More’ this week translates to ‘It just means we have more teams on bye-weeks than other conferences this week’. At some point I will sit down and write about SEC scheduling down the stretch, as between having 6 teams on bye weeks right before the CFP committee sit down to work out a way for Alabama to be #3, and the late season, pre-rivalry week cupcake we all hate but have to endure, it’s in my opinion a mixture of genius timing, and also a tough way to crawl out of a hole if your ‘floor’ is lower than you expected. Having a bye before the CFP rankings means that the general assumption is that you win, you move up which is all well and good, and to be honest this year may well prove to be a useful strategy considering how crazy the past few weeks have been in conference, and all the drama going on outside of it.
Ole Miss, Texas and Mizzou are all officially going bowling this year, each with decisive wins, albeit all against non-ranked opponents. Arch Manning lives to fight on another week with a 3TD game and no INTs, and whilst Trinidad Chambliss did have a pick to his name, he still looks absolutely exceptional, and again, needs to be someone getting a tux ready to go for a night in New York in just over a Month’s time. Mizzou continue to be… Mizzou, scoring wins, taking names, but not likely to reach a conference championship game anymore after they got rid of divisions once those XII teams came to play ‘with the big boys’.
That leaves us with the only ranked matchup of the day for the conference, and Georgia look as though they’re back to doing what they do best. Winning games. And by winning games, I mean dominating games. Florida barely stood a chance from the moment of kick-off to the final whistle, scoring their only points in the 4thquarter, and doing whatever alligators do in place of leaving with your tail between your legs. Geogia’s toughest remaining ‘real’ test will be at The Grove next week against Ole Miss, unless the SEC gods are going to have Cocktober become Cockvember? I don’t think that works; either with the stupid nickname, or the concept of South Carolina pulling an upset, even if they’re playing them at home.
For the teams on bye, the key word seems to be about getting healthy. Alabama in particular. Sadly, College Football isn’t like popping into a Pokémon Center to heal up. Some teams have a tough run ahead of them, and Alabama, for as much as I like to joke about them still have a couple of really tough games ahead. LSU next week, where Lane Kiffin will alternate his entire roster between being on IR, doubtful, certain to play and needing to have further evaluation, and of course Chattanooga, who currently sit 3rd in the Southern Conference in the FCS. That’s going to be a real battle.
What Now Group Of 6? Is There Chaos Brewing There Too? (Yes, There Is).
As it stands, the top 3 teams in the Group of 6 based on votes in the AP and Coaches Poll are:
- Boise State Broncos – PAC 12
- New Mexico Lobos – Mountain West
- Oregon State Beavers – PAC 12
Boise are ranked 20th in the AP Poll and 22nd in the Coaches Poll. New Mexico and Oregon State are not ranked, but have received votes in both polls. New Mexico would be ranked 27th in the AP Poll and 29th in the Coaches poll if you were to populate ‘Others receiving votes’ with a position, and Oregon State would be 29thin the AP Poll and 34th in the Coaches Poll with the same condition. This is the reason why I include every team with as much as a single vote in my Poll tables; there comes a time when this is actually useful, even for small writing snippets like these.
As good as this may look for New Mexico and Oregon State by a number attached to the fact they were granted some votes, the devil, as ever is in the detail. Boise recived 422 votes in the latest AP Poll, and 396 in the latest Coaches Poll. New Mexico? 41 votes (AP) and 43 (Coaches). Oregon State? 10 votes (AP) and 15 (Coaches). Even JMU before their loss last week didn’t make it into treble digits in either poll. Remember kids, you can almost always find a way to make statistics work in or against your interests, depending on how you frame it.
Team | W8 AP Votes | W8 Coaches Poll Votes |
|---|
Boise State Broncos | 422 | 396 |
New Mexico Lobos | 41 | 43 |
Oregon State Beavers | 10 | 15 |
The thing is though; there’s was a point at about 5:30AM GMT that this could all have gone to shit, whilst I was writing this section. (#PAC12AfterDark is alive and well). Boise were losing (but won), Oregon State were losing (And lost), which would put New Mexico kinda in the driving seat… If we were basing it on rankings alone, which of course we’re not. We need to remember that the condition for College Football Playoff qualification is the highest ranked Go6 CONFERENCE CHAMPION, which even after Boise’s 3rd Quarter scare where they allowed 22 points against Texas State this point would either be the PAC 12 or Mountain West Champion.
For a long time, James Maddison University were there in the mix going undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference, but they lost last week, and the SBC isn’t looking particularly strong right now; which may be the reason why JMU are heading away to The American conferenceiii. Even if JMU were to have carried on their winning ways and not picked up that loss to Appalachian State in OT last week, they had that hard ceiling of simply not being the best ranked Go6 team, which would almost certainly have translated into not being the best Go6 champion (I hope you get what I mean here; it’s late, I’m tired, but the whole Go6 system is fatally flawed anyways).
Ever since the awkward breakup of the PAC 12, the issue with them poaching teams from the Mountain West, and a frankly difficult landscape to navigate in the Go6, I’ve thought that there would have been value in Go6 conferences pairing up to have a champion vs champion game. This would have meant that the Conference championship games would be a week early, with the champion showdowns taking place during the ‘normal’ conference championship game week, though with the expansion to a 24-team playoff, that’s almost never going to happen now.
Depending on how the P4 schedule moving forward (And I have a long form piece that I need to write on this topic still), there’s scope for more Go6 inter-conference scheduling which may help their playoff stock, but how the conferences will react to it? It’ll either be money, the carrot on the stick of a potential playoff berth, or something else. Who knows? Maybe Bowl Mania as we know it will become a College Football version of the NIT in a bid to keep the Boca Roton bowl and the other ESPN owned and operated bowls going… But again, that’s another piece for another time.
Final Thoughts
This weekend had the ingredients for another full blown dose of chaos, and whilst there were elements of it, when the dust settled things largely remained as they were.
Let’s be honest, we were wondering when, not if Ohio State were going to lose another game. We knew Miami were going to be tested on the road, we knew that both the SEC and XII just needed to carry on ticking over to next week, and that Notre Dame holds their destiny firmly in their own hands. We knew that Indiana were going to continue to struggle until either Josh Hoover got ‘better’ or ‘more beaten up’, and we know that come Tuesday we can stop talking about rankings in hyperbole, and actually have a set of rankings that mean something.
Tuesday night (Wednesday Morning UK time) will be interesting. If nothing else, it gives teams two paths. One they control, and one they don’t. If you’re ranked in the Top 10, stay in your lane, get the job done, get some playoff football. Lose? Be prepared for someone else to come and snatch that spot. And for everyone on the outside looking in? Time to get hungry and show the world what you’ve really got deep inside that playbook.
The big reset is finally here. Funny that I spent much of my Saturday tying up loose ends with my Poll data charts and tables for the year to date. Oh well.
i Like they did during the COVID Era of College Football.
ii Who builds an almost billion-dollar stadium for less than 35,000 fans?
iii Don’t worry, this isn’t going to be a massive realignment domino game… At least not yet.
